Wednesday, October 27, 2004

Kerry on the Defensive?

Have I overestimated Kerry's strength? Has he peaked? Is Kerry playing defense? Today Kerry and Edwards were in states that Gore won in 2000: Iowa, Michigan, and Minnesota. Bush and Cheney were in Florida, Pennsylvania and Minnesota.

A new LA Times poll put Bush up by 8 in FL and the race tied in Pennsylvania. A Detriot News poll puts Kerry up by only 1 point in Michigan. New Jersey may be tied. According to the 10/27 edition of the Note the Democratic Party "plans to divert "substantial" resources to Hawaii; their independent expenditures arm will be going up on the air there, as well as some of the liberal 527s."

The important thing here is that, except for Florida, Bush is playing on the Democrats home turf, looking to steal some votes. Kerry is not appearing in any Republican states. Except for Ohio and New Hampshire Kerry is not challenging any Bush states.

Kerry can take heart from the Red Sox who were down 0-3 and came back. Kerry can win but his margin of error in the electoral college is close to zero. Bush on the other hand has more states to play with. He can lose any number of states that are currently close and still keep his job.

Oh the drama.


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