The War's Next Front
The War has just about taken over my life. I can't leave the laptop. I've even started watching Anderson Cooper again (gasp!). I'll spare you the minute by minute updates. Ynet, JPost and the blogs are better places to go for blow-by-blow accounts.
Hezbollah is getting its ass kicked. Their Iranian 'advisors' managed to hit an Israeli naval vessell with an Iranian-made radar-guilded C-102 missile yesterday (not a crude drone as first reported). Except that it's been pretty one-sided, as the blogger Sandmonkey says in his anti-Hezbollah rant:
Now, I for one awaited the Hezbollah surprise, and I have to say I found it rather dissapointing. They hit one f-ckin ship. That’s the surprise? That’s what the Israelis should beware? Hehehe. Dude, they blew up half of Beirut, they destroyed Nasrallah’s home and Office, and he is now hiding like a rat, declaring war on a cellphone since he no longer dares to show his face in public. He declares open war from a hideout and he doesn’t even have the means to have it televized. We are suppsoed to be impressed by this? What are your war capabilities you f-ckhead if in one day you run hiding and can’t even show your face? What is this bullsh-t anyway? And you know the Israelis haven’t even started fighting yet.True, true. The war is not going well from Hezbollah's perspective. Indeed the war is entirely playing to Israel's strength and Hezbollah's weaknesses. What do you do in this situation? You change the entire configuration of the conflict so that it plays to your strengths and your enemies weakness.
Hezbollah is not known as a conventional military power. Hezbollah's only real weapons are the 12-15000 rockets they can fire into Israel. But at the current rate they will deplete those rockets in 2-3 weeks. The only real risk from the Israel's point of view if that the IDF may run out of targets. Hezbollah has to open the war on yet another front. Israel is fighting in the south and the north. Hezbollah will expand the war to the frontless-front: the diaspora.
Soon, perhaps withing days, Hezbollah will attempt to attack an Israeli or Jewish target far removed from the battlefield. Obviously Europe presents the most tempting and probably the most rewarding target. I'm sure the Israeli embassies are on high alert and are well guarded. But there are too many soft targets: community centers, temples, charities, schools, Jewish-owned businesses. etc. With a little help from Iranian and/or Syrian intelligence Hezbollah can kill a lot of people and cause significant damage in the heart of European cities.
And the topper is that the Europeans would blame Israel. In Lebanon, on the battlefield Hezbollah can't win. In Europe, in a terror war, Hezbollah can't lose.