Bush Must Win Iowa
I may have been wrong. Iowa may close at 9pm EST. If Bush wins FL and Iowa, given the rest of my electoral map, Bush wins. However, since I'm giving Kerry both OH and PA then if Kerry can win NM, NV and IA, he wins.
Update: Iowa doesn't close the polls tim 10 EST. But many in the MSM are giving Bush 1 electoral vote from Maine. My current estimate puts Bush over the top at 272 to 266.