Tuesday, October 12, 2004

Into the Chasm

I haven't been posting much lately. I'm suffering a little bit of blogger fatigue. More than that. I suspect that so many different events are occuring so quickly, that our world is so complex, that no one person or group of persons is able to keep up in a meaningful way, much less grasp what is happening in any detail and plan for the future. The interconnections of demographics, resource depletion, disease, religion, technology, etc, etc, simply boggle the mind.

Nigeria, a oil producing state, is shut down by strikes over high fuel prices. Meanwhile, a group styling itself after the Taliban has killed four policemen in two raids on police stations in northeaster Nigeria. Its leader studied in Iraq.

In Pakistan the Shiites and Sunnis continue their low-intensity civil war, trading car bomb blasts and suicide bombers. Meanwhile Pakistan successfully tests its first nuclear-capable missle.

This morning NPR reported that Sudanese from Darfur, living in refugee camps in Chad, are fighting with the locals over increasingly scarse wood, used for fuel. (Please, stop the 'no blood for wood' jokes. This is serious.)

The residents of Belsan end their 40-day period of mourning tomorrow. Many have sworn revenge against other ethnic groups in the Caucasus region.

The current New Yorker has an article about the spread of AIDS in Russia. As the health of military age Russian men declines, who will provide security and order for a land that values these above almost all else? How will a depopulating and ill Russia react to migratory and military pressures from Muslim border states?

A few year ago, before 9/11, in The Ingenuity Gap, author Thomas Homer-Dixon warned that since "we must make far more sophisticated decisions, and in less time, than ever before" there is a "very real chasm that sometimes looms between our ever more difficult problems and our lagging ability to solve them."

I fear that the War Against Jihad is slipping into that chasm.

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