Turkey and the EU: A Lose-Lose Situation
Turkey wants to join the E.U. The U.S. want Turkey to join the E.U. The European Commission wants Turkey to join the E.U. Just one little hang-up, "A majority of the European parliament is anti-accession, the various national parliaments are against it, and the national populations are overwhelmingly opposed." Christopher Caldwell has a scary piece about this and the possibility of an Islamic Europe.
This issue puts Europe in a lose-lose situation. If Turkey joins the E.U. millions of Muslims will have the legal right to migrate throughout Europe, and since Turkey's population grows faster* than any E.U. country, this makes it all but certain that Europe will Islamicized over the coming decades. (Or, as Bat Yeor put it, "Their future is Eurabia. Period.")
If the E.U. does not let Turkey in this will be a huge blow to the Turkish political elite and moderate Turks and a big boost to the Islamist opposition. Look for an Islamists backlash against the establishment and the growth of widespread anti-European sentiment. After all, Turkey has changed several laws to conform to E.U. standards. They've done their part. If the E.U. rejects them the Islamists can say that it was because Europe doesn't want an Islamic nation. And they will be right.
So Europe can let 70 million Muslims into the E.U. now or risk a growing anti-Europe Muslim nation on its least stable border. Not to mention millions of pissed off Muslims inside Europe's biggest cities. Lose-lose indeed.
* According to the CIA World Factbook, Turkey's population growth rate is 1.13%. France's rate is 0.39%. The U.K.'s is 0.29%. Italy's is 0.09%. Germany's is 0.02%. The growth rate for the European countries includes births by Muslim immigrants who have more children at an earlier age than their European counterparts. So in fact the growth rate for native Italians and Germans is more than likely negative.